Brussels, Aug 7 — China may continue its rise towards becoming a global superpower, but its trajectory is becoming increasingly contested and uncertain. For the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the challenge extends beyond building economic and military strength to navigating the contradictions of power in a world that is growing more resistant to Beijing's ambitions, a report has stated.
"China’s Communist Party (CCP) has long envisioned a future where the nation stands shoulder to shoulder with — or above — the United States as a global superpower. This ambition rests on two pillars: viz economic might and military strength. Yet, the trajectory is far from smooth. The CCP’s path is being tested by slowing growth, demographic decline, and intensifying confrontations abroad," Khedroob Thondup, the nephew of the Dalai Lama, wrote in European Times.
Highlighting the CCP's first pillar as economic dominance, he said that since the reforms introduced by former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, China has viewed economic prosperity as the cornerstone of national power.
"The logic is straightforward; prosperity fuels legitimacy at home and influence abroad. Through initiatives like the Belt and Road, Beijing has sought to translate economic clout into geopolitical leverage, binding countries into its orbit with infrastructure loans and trade dependency. But cracks are showing. Youth unemployment is high, property markets are unstable, and debt burdens weigh heavily on local governments. The promise of endless growth is faltering, raising doubts about whether wealth alone can sustain the CCP’s superpower dream," Thondup mentioned.
Emphasising that the CCP's second pillar is military strength, Thondup said Beijing has invested heavily in modernising the Chinese military, transforming it from a predominantly land-based force into a technologically advanced military with blue-water naval capabilities, sophisticated cyber warfare units, and advanced missile systems. The objective, he noted, is to deter US intervention in Asia, assert dominance in the South China Sea, and project power globally.
"Yet military expansion invites confrontation. Tensions with the US over Taiwan, clashes with India along the Himalayan border, and disputes in the South China Sea all test Beijing’s ability to wield its growing arsenal without triggering escalation," he added.
Stressing that China’s ambition is constrained by three enduring challenges, Thondup said, "First, economic slowdown. Growth is no longer guaranteed, and the CCP’s legitimacy is tied to prosperity. Secondly, demographic decline. A shrinking workforce and ageing population threaten long-term productivity. The last is geopolitical pushback countries from Japan to Australia to the EU are recalibrating ties, wary of dependency and coercion."
He stressed that the CCP's vision of becoming a superpower is not fanciful but rooted in decades of planning. However, he argued the paradox remains: Beijing’s drive for wealth and military power has exposed new vulnerabilities, as "economic fragility undermines confidence while military assertiveness provokes resistance."