Santiago, Sep 22 — An extreme El Nino event could cause losses equivalent to at least 2 per cent of Latin America and the Caribbean's GDP and plunge an additional 4.8 million people into poverty, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has warned.
In a report titled 'The Effects of El Nino in Latin America and the Caribbean and Recommendations for Addressing It', the Santiago-based agency on Monday (local time) said a high-intensity event could have wide-ranging economic, social and productive impacts, particularly on energy, agriculture, fisheries and infrastructure.
ECLAC Executive Secretary Jose Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs warned of "severe economic and social repercussions" as well as impacts on key productive sectors if El Nino reaches high intensity.
The agency said the largest economic losses would likely occur in the first year of the event, although the effects could persist, while declining household incomes could raise poverty levels toward the end of the decade.
According to projections by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is a more than 90 per cent chance that El Nino will reach very strong intensity during the 2026-2027 boreal autumn and winter, and a 69 per cent chance of reaching a historic "Super El Nino" magnitude, reports Xinhua news agency.
For October-December 2026, the probability of below-normal rainfall is estimated at 60 per cent, while 31.1 per cent of the region's territory is under high alert, the report said.
Higher temperatures could increase electricity demand for cooling in major cities including Lima, Sao Paulo and Mexico City at a time of reduced water availability, raising the risk of supply disruptions and higher operating costs.
ECLAC urged governments to strengthen early-warning systems, protect critical infrastructure, improve water management, diversify energy sources, expand climate insurance and social protection, and deepen regional cooperation to reduce the impact.