Guwahati, Sep 15 — Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has raised the political stakes around the upcoming Nagaon Lok Sabha bypoll, saying a BJP victory in the constituency could signal a dramatic shift in the state’s electoral landscape and even pave the way for the party to win all 126 Assembly seats in the next election.
Sarma said the BJP has detected a noticeable change in voter sentiment in its favour over the past month, but acknowledged that Nagaon remains a difficult constituency for the ruling party given its longstanding association with the Congress.
“If BJP wins the Nagaon bypoll, then in the next Assembly election we will win 126 seats,” Sarma said, underlining the significance he attaches to the October 6 contest.
The Chief Minister, however, cautioned against viewing Nagaon as a conventional BJP stronghold. He pointed out that the constituency has historically favoured the Congress and said the recent movement towards the BJP would have to translate into an actual electoral victory.
“We have seen in the last one month that people are inclining towards BJP. But this is not a traditional BJP seat; it has always been Congress,” Sarma said.
The bypoll has consequently emerged as an important political test for both major parties before the next 2029 general election.
The BJP has fielded former IAS officer and former Nagaon Deputy Commissioner Devasish Sharma, while the Congress has nominated former Batadroba MLA Sibamoni Bora. The contest assumes additional significance because the Nagaon Lok Sabha seat was won by the Congress in the 2019 and 2024 general elections. The seat fell vacant after Pradyut Bordoloi resigned as MP and subsequently joined the BJP before contesting the Dispur Assembly constituency.
For the BJP, winning Nagaon would represent more than a parliamentary bypoll victory. It could strengthen the party’s claim that its organisational and electoral influence is expanding into areas traditionally dominated by Congress.
For the Congress, retaining the seat would provide a crucial counter-narrative and demonstrate that its traditional support base in central Assam remains intact.
With both parties treating Nagaon as a political bellwether, the October 6 verdict is likely to be closely watched as an early indicator of Assam’s electoral mood.