New Delhi, Aug 18 — Bangladesh’s statement of a rethink on Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s India tour, linking Dhaka’s demands for the extradition of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, interestingly came the same month that the latter herself announced her intention of returning home in December.

The official statement chose to overlook her specific comments while condemning the very press conference she held online from a remote location.

A day before the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) of Bangladesh ruled out Rahman’s India visit, a very senior bureaucrat, now leading a think tank in Dhaka, wrote in one of the country’s leading English dailies that relations with India “are currently at a point where there is a clear need to rethink the relationship from a new perspective”.

Admitting that “India's renewed interest is understandable”, given the two countries “are deeply interconnected because of geography, history and mutual interdependence”, M. Humayun Kabir, president of the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute and a former ambassador of Bangladesh to the United States, wrote in The Daily Star Sunday, “The departure now is that Bangladesh says it will no longer lean excessively on one particular partner for political or domestic reasons. Instead, it will work with everyone according to its own needs and interests.”

That is a sentiment raised by a section to put pressure on the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led government, which completes six months in power and is facing criticisms at home over what another media report on Tuesday termed “Strong on optics, less so on delivery”. It pointed out, quoting analysts, among other alleged shortcomings, that the government “still had a long way to go to make people feel secure in terms of law and order and energy”. Some analysts, the report said, claimed that some of the Prime Minister’s efforts to project a people-centric government “were being undermined by the conduct of party colleagues”.

Meanwhile, the Opposition alliance led by the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami party is criticising the government for reaching out to Pakistan – from whose oppression the country gained independence in 1971 – even if at the cost of India relations.

The Jamaat, a major Islamist political party in Bangladesh, has a controversial past for its opposition to independence. It was banned by the Hasina regime, a ban that was lifted during the tenure of the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government. It is currently the principal Opposition force in Parliament. The Jamaat is also exhorting the government to implement the July Charter, which still faces legal and Constitutional challenges.

Meanwhile, the World Bank’s Bangladesh Development Update projected growth to slow to 3.9 per cent in FY26, where a “protracted conflict in the Middle East could have significant implications for Bangladesh”, including higher inflation, reduced fiscal space from rising energy subsidies, and a weaker current account due to higher import costs, weaker exports, and lower remittances.

A media report on Tuesday iterated that among the challenging tasks before the government are reducing the inflation rate, revenue mobilisation, and tackling the energy crisis. “Overall, after six months of the BNP government, the economy has yet to show a promising performance,” wrote economist Fahmida Khatun. Under such circumstances, Dhaka cannot afford turmoil amidst Hasina’s return, which can translate into instability, where it may unsettle investors and disrupt the fragile recovery of Bangladesh’s economy.

Her announcement to return home in December was to coincide with the time celebrated in Bangladesh as “Victory Month”, marking the liberation of Bangladesh in the 1971 war. Evoking emotions, she acknowledged that imprisonment or even death could await her. She sought to invoke the spirit of national resilience and sacrifice, presenting herself as a leader willing to endure personal risk for the sake of her country’s democratic future.

Politically, her arrival can ignite tensions between the government and the Awami League, which has been banned from political activity. But her arrest can fan unrest and draw international condemnation, while any negotiation may be seen as weakness. As mentioned in the MOFA statement, India and Bangladesh did sign an extradition treaty in 2013, which was amended in 2016, but in Article 6, it states that the process may be refused for political offences. However, it also specifies that certain crimes, like murder, manslaughter, assault causing grievous harm, possession of explosives or firearms intended to endanger life, and violations of multilateral treaty obligations, are not considered “political offences”.

India, as stated officially, now needs to examine the matter in light of the legal and judicial processes involved before handing over a former Prime Minister who has a death sentence hanging over her head. The death sentence looms over the 78-year-old leader of Bangladesh Awami League like the proverbial Damocles’ Sword. Ironically, Hasina and her sister, Rehana, are the only survivors of the Sheikh Mujibur Rahman family, who were shot dead in 1975. They were abroad at that time.

Sheikh Mujib, hailed as the founding father of Bangladesh, his wife Begum Fazilatunnesa, sons Sheikh Kamal, Sheikh Jamal, and 10-year-old Sheikh Russel, were brutally murdered. Other relatives were also killed in coordinated attacks across Dhaka. Thus, pragmatically, it is time to wait and watch.

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