Agartala/Guwahati, Aug 1 — Even as several Northeastern states were battered by heavy rains, floods and landslides during July, five of the region's eight states recorded below-normal monsoon rainfall so far due to weak rain-bearing systems over the Bay of Bengal, the absence of active monsoon troughs and the influence of El Nino, India Meteorological Department (IMD) officials said on Saturday.

According to the IMD’s latest rainfall data, seven of the eight Northeastern states, with the exception of Sikkim, had also recorded a substantial rainfall deficit during June, highlighting a weak start to this year's southwest monsoon despite episodes of intense, localised precipitation that triggered floods and landslides across the region.

The IMD data further showed that the East and Northeast Meteorological Sub-Division, comprising the eight Northeastern states along with West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar, registered an overall rainfall deficiency of more than 30 per cent during June and July, the first two months of the four-month southwest monsoon season, which extends from June to September.

Among the eight states in the Northeast region, Sikkim, Tripura and Nagaland registered normal rainfall during June and July. As per IMD norms, rainfall ranging from 19 per cent deficient to 19 per cent excess is categorised as normal. Among the five other Northeastern states, Meghalaya recorded the highest deficiency of 58 per cent in June and July, followed by 41 per cent deficiency in Arunachal Pradesh, 40 per cent in Manipur, 28 per cent in Assam and 24 per cent deficiency in Mizoram.

The five Northeastern states -- Nagaland (56 per cent deficient), Arunachal Pradesh (44 per cent), Assam (37 per cent), Mizoram (37 per cent), and Tripura (36 per cent) -- recorded an average rainfall deficiency of around 42 per cent during June, the first month of the four-month monsoon period.

IMD data showed that Meghalaya and Manipur recorded "Large Deficient (LD)" rainfall during June, with deficiencies of 74 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively.

The IMD said that below-normal rainfall (less than 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) is likely over the country during the second half of the Southwest Monsoon season (August–September) 2026. During this period, below-normal rainfall is very likely over many parts of the country except some parts of Peninsular India, Central India, northern parts of Northwest India and East and Northeast India where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely.

During August (2026), rainfall over the country is likely to be below normal (less than 94 per cent of the LPA. Below-normal rainfall is very likely over many parts of the country except many areas of Eastern Peninsular India, some areas of Northwest and Central India and isolated areas of East and Northeast India where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely, the IMD said in a statement.

Agricultural scientists and IMD officials observed that normal rainfall during July was crucial for the ongoing Kharif cropping season, as sowing activities across most parts of the country, including the mountainous Northeastern region, gather momentum during the month.

A senior official of the Manipur Agriculture Department said that the deficiency in monsoon rainfall, coupled with the prolonged ethnic conflict, has severely affected agriculture in the state, where irrigation facilities remain inadequate.

"However, the state government has taken adequate security arrangements and other supportive measures to facilitate farming activities in both the Imphal Valley and the hill districts during the Kharif cropping season," the official told IANS.

The Southwest monsoon advanced into substantial parts of the Northeastern region on June 7, two days later than its normal onset date.

Officials of the IMD’s Meteorological Centres in Guwahati and Agartala said that the Southwest monsoon covered the entire Northeastern region by June 10.

A weather expert noted that one of the strongest El Nino events on record is expected to develop during the second half of 2026, potentially triggering hotter and drier conditions across large parts of Asia while causing excessive rainfall over parts of the Americas. The impact of the phenomenon is likely to be further amplified by ongoing global climate change.

He said that although the IMD had earlier revised its forecast for the four-month Southwest monsoon season (June to September), which contributes nearly 70 per cent of India's annual rainfall, concerns over El Nino continue to persist. However, despite the prevailing El Nino conditions, meteorologists remain optimistic that the Northeastern region would receive adequate rainfall during the remaining monsoon months, particularly during the peak phase of the season.

The four-month Southwest monsoon is vital for the agrarian economy of the Northeastern states, where a large section of the population depends on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihood. Adequate rainfall during the remaining monsoon months would not only support Kharif cultivation but also help replenish rivers, reservoirs and groundwater resources, besides improving overall environmental conditions and ensuring water security across the region.

(Sujit Chakraborty can be contacted at sujitchakrabortyne@gmail.com)

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