Bihar Election 2025 Survey: NDA Gains Edge, But Mahagathbandhan Still in the Fight

The upcoming Bihar Assembly Election 2025 is shaping up to be a cliffhanger. A recent survey indicates that while the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) enjoys a slight edge, the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) is still holding its ground with resilient voter backing. The contest is expected to be intense, with regional leaders, caste equations, and shifting alliances playing decisive roles.

With Nitish Kumar’s return to NDA, BJP’s organizational strength, and the growing role of allies like LJP (Ram Vilas), HAM, and other smaller parties, the NDA is consolidating its base. However, Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, along with Congress and Left parties, continues to command a loyal voter base, especially among youth and marginalized communities.

The survey projects a tight electoral battle, raising questions about whether NDA’s edge will translate into a clear majority or whether the Mahagathbandhan can pull off a comeback.

Survey Findings at a Glance

• NDA Edge: NDA appears to have a narrow advantage in projected seats.
• Mahagathbandhan Strength: RJD-Congress-Left alliance still enjoys strong support in rural areas and youth-driven regions.
• Voter Mood: Anti-incumbency exists but is fragmented across parties.
• Caste Equations: Yadavs, Muslims, Dalits, and OBC segments continue to influence vote shares heavily.
• Urban vs Rural Divide: NDA performing better in urban and semi-urban seats, Mahagathbandhan retaining its rural bastions.

(Read our full breakdown of Bihar Election 2025 dates, schedule, and key constituencies for a constituency-wise picture.)

NDA’s Edge: Factors Driving the Momentum

1. Nitish Kumar Back in NDA: His alliance with BJP has provided a morale boost to NDA’s cadre.
2. Modi Factor: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity continues to be a driving force, especially among first-time voters.
3. Allies’ Support: Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM are strengthening NDA’s caste and regional arithmetic.
4. Organizational Machinery: BJP’s election strategy, booth management, and digital outreach give NDA an edge.

Mahagathbandhan’s Resilience

1. Tejashwi Yadav’s Appeal: His focus on jobs and youth remains a strong campaign plank.
2. RJD Base: Despite challenges, RJD retains loyalty among Yadav and Muslim communities.
3. Congress Factor: Though weakened, Congress still helps in key seats by consolidating anti-BJP votes.
4. Left Parties: Their grassroots network provides ground-level mobilization.

(Also read our analysis of Tejashwi Yadav’s strategy for Bihar 2025 elections.)

What Makes Bihar a Cliffhanger?

• Fragmented Vote Banks: Multiple parties and caste identities split votes.
• Swing Seats: Nearly 80–100 seats remain too close to call.
• Turnout Impact: Higher turnout among youth and women could swing results.
• Regional Leaders: Local leaders like Shashank Balwant Mishra from Riga (Bihar) supporting Chirag Paswan are emerging as important in tipping balance in constituencies.

Reactions from Both Camps

• NDA Leaders: Confident of a clear win, projecting development and stability.
• Mahagathbandhan Leaders: Claim surveys underestimate their grassroots support.
• Voter Sentiments: Many voters still undecided, which could prove decisive in final results.

The Bigger Picture

The Bihar Election 2025 is more than a state contest; it will set the tone for India’s 2026 political realignments. A strong NDA performance could further consolidate its national dominance, while a Mahagathbandhan upset could revive opposition morale across the country.

Conclusion

The latest survey suggests NDA may be ahead, but Bihar has a history of surprising outcomes. With caste equations, youth aspirations, and local leadership in play, this election could go down to the wire. Both alliances know that every seat will matter, making Bihar 2025 one of the most unpredictable elections of the decade.